The Republican led U.S. House of Representatives approved the American Health Care Act of 2017 last may and now the Office of the Chief Actuary of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released its report on the Estimated Financial Effect of the “AHCA .”
According to reports from the Health Affairs Organization:
“The headline from the Actuary’s report that is likely to receive the most attention is that the CMS Actuary sees the AHCA as increasing the uninsured by 4 million for 2018/2019 and by 13 million by 2026. By contrast, the CBO estimated that the AHCA would increase the uninsured by 14 million for 2018 and 23 million by 2026. The Actuary also, however, projects far smaller reductions in federal health care spending from the AHCA than did the CBO—a total of $328 billion over ten years, including $160 billion reductions in federal subsidies for purchasing individual market (compared to $290 billion by the CBO) and $383 billion in Medicaid reductions (compared to an $834 billion CBO estimate)”
In an article by Becker’s Review 8 Key points were listed for the CMS scores (relisted below):
1. Compared to current law, the number of uninsured under the AHCA would increase by 13 million over the next decade, reaching a total of 43 million by 2026.
2. The AHCA would reduce federal expenditures by $328 billion from 2017-2026.
3. The CMS estimate is more optimistic than that of the Congressional Budget Office,
4. CMS suggests the AHCA would reduce overall national spending on healthcare by 0.6 percent to $258 billion over the next decade.
5. CMS also found the legislation would create a slight shift in costs from the federal government and private organizations onto households and states from 2017-2026.
6. By 2026, individuals who buy insurance on the exchanges would pay 27 percent more — or about $162 more per month — for healthcare under the AHCA, compared to what they are expected to pay under the ACA.
7. The AHCA could have mixed effects on marketplace stability
8. The AHCA would exhaust the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund by 2026, two years earlier than expected.
You can read full details of the analysis here: CMS Scores
